Friedrich Merz can’t go on like this - The Economist

Friedrich Merz: Why Germany’s Leader-in-Waiting is Running Out of Time

For months, the political narrative in Berlin seemed set in stone: with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s popularity plummeting, the path was clear for Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), to reclaim the Chancellery for the conservatives. However, as recent headlines from The Economist and The Guardian suggest, the "Merz momentum" has stalled. Instead of a triumphant march to power, Merz finds himself "stuck in the mud."

The Paradox of the Opposition

On paper, Friedrich Merz should be soaring. Germany is grappling with a "shrinking chancellor" syndrome, as Politico puts it, referring to Olaf Scholz’s inability to project strength amidst an economic downturn and a fractured coalition. Yet, despite the government’s failures, Merz has failed to capture the public’s imagination. While the CDU leads in the polls, Merz’s personal approval ratings remain stubbornly low—often trailing behind his own party’s popularity.

As The Economist pointedly argues, Friedrich Merz "can’t go on like this." The central problem is that while he is an effective attack dog in the Bundestag, he has yet to convince the broader German electorate that he is a stabilizing, modern statesman. Instead of filling the vacuum left by Scholz, he often appears as a relic of a pre-Merkel era, struggling to adapt to a more diverse and volatile political landscape.

"Straight-Talking" or Just Dangerous?

Merz has built his brand on being a "straight talker," a stark contrast to the cautious, often robotic communication style of Angela Merkel. However, this trait is making more than a few people nervous. According to Bloomberg, his rhetoric—particularly regarding migration and social issues—is sending shivers through European capitals.

His attempts to outflank the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) by adopting tougher language have often backfired. Critics argue that instead of winning back conservative voters, he is merely normalizing the AfD’s talking points. This creates a strategic dilemma: if he moves too far to the right, he alienates the centrist voters who kept Merkel in power for 16 years; if he stays in the center, he loses the firebrand edge that defines his political identity.

The Shadow of a Transatlantic Crisis

The stakes are not just domestic. Reuters highlights that Merz is marking his time in office against the backdrop of a deep transatlantic crisis. With the potential return of volatility in U.S. politics and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Germany needs a leader who can navigate complex international waters.

While Merz has strong Atlanticist credentials, his tendency toward impulsive statements raises questions about his diplomatic temperament. Can a man who makes Europe nervous truly lead the continent’s largest economy through its most significant geopolitical shift since the Cold War?

The Road to 2025: A Final Opportunity

Friedrich Merz is currently at a crossroads. He has successfully consolidated his power within the CDU, neutralizing internal rivals for now. But as The Guardian notes, "finding his footing" remains his greatest challenge. To win the Chancellery, he must evolve from a partisan brawler into a visionary leader who offers more than just "not being Scholz."

If Merz cannot pivot—if he continues to oscillate between populist rhetoric and elite corporate sensibilities—he may find that the CDU’s lead in the polls is a house of cards. Germany is looking for stability, not a return to the ideological battles of the 1990s. The clock is ticking, and for Friedrich Merz, the "business as usual" approach is no longer an option.

Is Friedrich Merz the right man to lead Germany, or is he a liability for the CDU? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!